An opinion on what to expect from Iran-Israel current clashes

By editorial team

06.13.2025

Israel has launched an operation to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. Such an operation requires time - days, perhaps weeks of successive waves of attacks.

The interesting thing is that the factor that will allow the campaign to continue is actually Iran.

Iran is in a trap. The Israeli opening strike took it completely by surprise - eliminating the military leadership, losing control of the airspace, and every hour brings new waves of attacks. What the Iranians probably want is to end the round of fighting quickly, before the entire nuclear program is destroyed.

But how do they do that? There are three options, and they are all problematic.

The first option is a massive military response. To hit Israel hard and force it to fold. However, for now, the Iranians seem to be having difficulty issuing such a response, and it is unclear when, if ever, they will be able to.

The second option is to appeal to the Americans to continue negotiations or to bring the Security Council to intervene.

But there are two problems here: turning to the Americans would be seen as surrender and a sign of weakness, especially after the elimination of the military leadership. It is also likely that the Trump administration will harden its positions, recognizing Iranian weakness.

Security Council intervention is no better.
As part of any ceasefire agreement, it is likely that clauses will be introduced for tight international supervision of Iran and the removal of all enriched uranium from its territory.
In essence, Iran will be forced to accept from the Council what it refused to give in negotiations with Trump.

The third option is asymmetric escalation - for example, closing the Strait of Hormuz. But this could lead to immediate American intervention, which would further worsen Iran's situation.

It is worth noting that Israel is careful to attack only military and nuclear targets, not civilian infrastructure.
This will probably remain the case, unless Iran decides otherwise. Because in this way, Israel both deters Iran from attacking Israeli infrastructure, and also preserves the interests of the powers not to intervene for the time being. As long as the campaign remains “military,” the powers will drag their feet, especially the US.

So what should we watch for in the coming days?

First, after statements by the five permanent members of the Security Council, especially the US and Russia. They may try to mediate, but it will take time - exactly what Israel needs.

Second, after Iranian attempts to harm oil traffic in the Gulf or vital infrastructure in Israel. This would be a significant escalation that would bring Israeli or American action accordingly.

Third, after a change in Israeli goals - if we see a strike on non-military targets, it would signal a transition to a new phase in the campaign.

We have tough days ahead.