Following up on the previous topic…
04.08.2025
By Valikhan Tuleshov
What if, in response to the software and fintech blockages, the EU were to stall the Basel Center for International Settlements (BIS) for the United States, which is essentially the "central bank of all central banks?”
For the sake of the context, I would add that, the BIS facilitates settlements between central banks, manages global reserves, and coordinates banking regulatory standards (like Basel III). The U.S. participates through the Federal Reserves, but the BIS is legally an international organization headquartered in Switzerland (not directly managed by the EU, but heavily influenced by it and the ECB).
Therefore, if the EU initiates a block on U.S. access to the BIS, it would cause a massive financial shock. Both the Feds and American banks could temporarily lose access to international settlement mechanisms through the BIS.
This would also severely impact dollar liquidity in the global system, especially in developing countries and international banks holding dollar reserves.
In the long term, it would undermine global confidence in the U.S., as the precedent of full or partial U.S. isolation would trigger a massive reallocation of reserves towards the euro, yuan, gold, or SDRs (IMF special rights), accelerating the de-dollarization trend.
Political escalation would reach its peak, as the U.S. might respond with sanctions against European banks, restrictions on SWIFT access, or dollar correspondent accounts.
There could be an attempt to create a "BIS 2.0" with participation from BRICS countries, Turkey, Arab nations, and others.
The likelihood of such a move is, of course, slim; it would be a "nuclear option." However, restrictions freezes, and demands for additional transparency are possible, especially if the U.S. begins to weaponize fintech and software. History has seen similar moves, such as the disconnection of Iran from SWIFT, which the EU initially supported but later tried to circumvent (INSTEX).
For the world, this would mean a fragmentation of the global financial system, with parallel settlement centers emerging in Shanghai, Dubai, Istanbul, and possibly Astana. And the development of SWIFT and BIS alternatives by BRICS and other alliances would accelerate.
Trust in gold, cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would significantly increase.
The principle of "technology = sovereignty" would become an axiom.
Ultimately, if the U.S. issues a digital ultimatum and the EU retaliates by targeting the BIS, it would not just be a trade war, but a shift towards a new geofinancial architecture with at least three centers: the U.S., the EU, and China (plus the Global South). Perhaps even four. I'll elaborate on this in my next piece.
