Pope Francis's Vision: A 'Piecemeal' Third World War and its Projected Mid-2020s Turning Point
04.27.2025
By Valikah Tuleshov
Pope Francis, head of the Roman Catholic Church, has been recognized not only as a voice for progressive global aspirations but also as an astute geopolitical observer.1 In 2014, he notably stated that a third world war had commenced, projecting its culmination around the mid-2020s.
Defining the 'Piecemeal' Conflict:
When Pope Francis first spoke of the "Third World War" in 2014, he clarified he meant a hybrid, "dismembered" conflict. Unlike the singular global battles of the First and Second World Wars, he described it as a chain of numerous local and regional conflicts – citing examples such as Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, Libya, and crises across Africa and Latin America – unified by the underlying logic of global confrontation and crisis.
Francis insightfully observed that this war was being waged "piecemeal," manifesting through interconnected economic, informational, political, ethnic, religious, and military clashes. He perceived these not as isolated incidents but as symptoms of a global systemic instability, collectively resembling a new world war, albeit one without a formal declaration.
The Scope of the 'Parts':
His reference to the conflict being waged "in parts" encompassed more than the wars in Syria and Ukraine. It included the destabilization of Libya, various wars in Africa, acts of terrorism and religious extremism, economic injustices characterized as a "war for resources," pervasive information wars, and what he termed a "crisis of the culture of dialogue." He viewed all these phenomena as manifestations of the same global destabilization.
Modern Warfare Beyond Military Means:
Pope Francis repeatedly underscored that contemporary warfare extends beyond conventional military action. He identified several key dimensions:
Economic Pressure: The "enslavement" of poorer countries through debt and unequal markets, including tariff wars and direct economic-political leverage.
Information Warfare: Widespread manipulation of information and public consciousness via media and social networks, sometimes linked, according to the original analysis, to efforts by powerful state actors to revise historical narratives.2
Cultural Aggression: The forceful imposition of external values and attempts by ascendant groups to overhaul societal value systems.
Religious Exploitation: The misuse of faith to legitimize violence, terror, and expansionist aims.
Ecological Catastrophe: Framing environmental destruction as a form of war against future generations, leading paradoxically to reduced living space and potential population impacts.
Interpreting the Mid-2020s Timeline:
Regarding the mid-2020s, particularly the year 2025 which some analysts connect to the conclusion of this conflict phase, Pope Francis himself did not issue official prophecies. However, interpretations arose, especially within Catholic circles, suggesting the world might navigate the most acute phase of this "war in parts" by this timeframe – particularly following the impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine crisis, and intensified US-China-Russia tensions.
Other political analysts associate this potential end date with speculated agendas among global actors ("world behind the scenes") aiming to institute a new digitalized financial and monetary order, or efforts to maintain global leadership within a new technological paradigm. It is suggested that Pope Francis and his foreign policy advisors likely understood these undercurrents and sought to mediate contradictions between world power centers, emphasizing that "Globalization in itself is not evil, but it becomes evil when it turns into the globalization of indifference and war."
The Vatican's Proposed Path Forward:
The Vatican's global project, represented by the Pope, sought constructive solutions to this world war scenario, calling for:
Multilateral Dialogue: Instead of ultimatums.
An Economy of Justice: Moving beyond a relentless pursuit of profit.
A New Humanism: Prioritizing human dignity over economics and ideologies.
Respect for Cultures and Identities: Resisting suppression.
Peace Through Education and Culture: As an alternative to repression.
Fraternity and Dialogue as Antidotes:
In his encyclical Fratelli Tutti, Pope Francis stated directly: "Every war destroys our project of fraternity. War begins not when guns are fired, but when dialogue breaks down and the dignity of the other is despised." He also pointed to the COVID-19 pandemic as an event that starkly revealed global vulnerability and fragmentation.
His hope was that humanity would recognize its profound interconnectedness before sliding into greater catastrophe. The mid-2020s timeframe, particularly 2025, appeared in some discourse as a potential "window of opportunity" for global reassessment – contingent on dedicated efforts towards peace.
Potential Future Scenario:
Following the logic attributed to Pope Francis, a possible future trajectory could emerge. Factors such as Russia's position shifting due to the war in Ukraine, a re-establishment of US-EU relations, recovery from the pandemic's consequences, and navigating the acute phase of trade conflicts might foster conditions for a new global consensus. Such a consensus could allow humanity the opportunity to live and interact more multilaterally and embrace polysociocultural diversity across all aspects of existence.
